搜索结果: 1-10 共查到“人口预测学 mortality”相关记录10条 . 查询时间(0.048 秒)
An application of MCMC simulation in mortality projection for populations with limited data
Bayesian MCMC modelling mortality projection WinBUGS
2014/11/26
Objective: IIn this paper, we investigate the use of Bayesian modeling and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, via the software WinBUGS, to project future mortality for populations with limite...
The age pattern of increases in mortality affected by HIV: Bayesian fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to data from the Agincourt HDSS field site in rural northeast South Africa
AIDS/HIV Bayesian inference life expectancy South AfricaAIDS/HIV Bayesian inference life expectancy South Africa
2014/11/25
Background: We investigate the sex-age-specific changes in the mortality of a prospectively monitored rural population in South Africa. We quantify changes in the age pattern of mortality efficiently ...
Old age mortality in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia
Asia cause of death decomposition East Asia life expectancy old age mortality South-East Asia
2014/11/25
Background: Eastern and South-Eastern Asian countries have witnessed a marked decline in old age mortality in recent decades. Yet no studies have investigated the trends and patterns in old age mortal...
Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: The case of the Netherlands
Europe extrapolation Lee-Carter model Netherlands non-linear models smoking
2014/11/25
Background: With the rapid aging of the population, mortality forecasting becomes increasingly important, especially for the insurance and pension industries. However, a wide variety of projection met...
Mortality by marital status in a rapidly changing society: Evidence from the Czech Republic
Czech Republic differential mortality marital status mortality
2014/11/25
Background: Married people tend to live longer than their unmarried counterparts, and the advantage in life expectancy enjoyed by married people relative to other groups has been increasing over time....
How life expectancy varies with perturbations in age-specific mortality
life expectancy mortality pace of aging perturbation
2014/11/21
Background: A naturally arising question in demography is how a given change in mortality affects life expectancy. Scholars have targeted this question with different aims and from different perspecti...
Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods
long-range trends adult mortality projection methods
2009/9/15
This study has two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates, and (2) to develop a new method for projecting...
The determinants of Areal Childhood Mortality Variation in Swaziland
Areal Childhood Swaziland
2009/9/14
The determinants of Areal Childhood Mortality Variation in Swaziland .
Fertility and Mortality Trends and Implications for Social Demands in Botswana
Fertility Mortality Trends
2009/9/14
Fertility and Mortality Trends and Implications for Social Demands in Botswana.
Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions
functional data Lee-Carter method mortality forecasting nonparametric smoothing principal components state space
2008/12/12
We compare the short- to medium-term accuracy of five variants or extensions of the Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting. These include the original Lee-Carter, the Lee-Miller and Booth-Maindon...