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Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations
aggregation correlation forecasting probabilistic projection pseudo-likelihood total fertility rate
2014/11/26
Background: The United Nations (UN) Population Division constructs probabilistic projections for the total fertility rate (TFR) using the Bayesian hierarchical model of Alkema et al. (2011), which pro...
Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy
autoregressive model Bayesian hierarchical model oldest old potential support ratio t distribution United Nations World Population Prospects
2014/11/26
Background: The United Nations (UN) produces population projections for all countries every two years. These are used by international organizations, governments, the private sector and researchers fo...
Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data- the case of Denmark and Finland
Denmark Finland household projection probabilistic projection
2014/11/24
Background: Household forecasts are important for public planning and for predicting consumer demand.Objective: The purpose of this paper is to compute probabilistic household forecasts for Finland an...
Estimates of Age-Specific Reductions in HIV Prevalence in Uganda: Bayesian Melding Estimation and Probabilistic Population Forecast with an HIV-enabled Cohort Component Projection Model
Africa AIDS/HIV Bayesian melding Cohort Component Model of Population Projection estimation forecast IMIS incidence prevalence Tanzania Uganda
2014/11/21
Background: Much of our knowledge of the epidemiology and demography of HIV epidemics in Africa is derived from models fit to sparse, non-representative data. These often average over age and other im...
The Probabilistic Projection of the Supply and Demand for New Entrant Engineers to the South African Labour Market 1994-2023
Probabilistic Projection New Entrant Engineers
2009/9/14
The Probabilistic Projection of the Supply and Demand for New Entrant Engineers to the South African Labour Market 1994-2023.
Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway
cohort component method, forecast errors forecasting simulation stochastic population forecast time series uncertainty
2008/12/1
Deterministic population forecasts do not give an appropriate indication of forecast uncertainty. Forecasts should be probabilistic, rather than deterministic, so that their expected accuracy can be a...