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State dependent predictability:impact of uncertainty dynamics,uncertainty structure and model inadequacies
State dependent predictability uncertainty dynamics uncertainty structure model inadequacies
2009/11/11
The implications of state dependent, finite time error growth has been studied using singular values in a chaotic 2-dimensional map. Earlier studies have demonstrated the superiority of the singular v...
Enhancing predictability by increasing nonlinearity in ENSO and Lorenz systems
predictability nonlinearity ENSO Lorenz systems
2009/11/2
The presence of nonlinear terms in the governing equations of a dynamical system usually leads to the loss of predictability, e.g. in numerical weather prediction. However, for the El Niño-Sout...
Breeding and predictability in the baroclinic rotating annulus using a perfect model
Breeding predictability baroclinic rotating annulus perfect model
2009/11/2
We present results from a computational study of predictability in fully-developed baroclinically unstable laboratory flows. This behaviour is studied in the Met Office/Oxford Rotating Annulus Laborat...