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The limits of predictability of volcanic eruptions from accelerating rates of earthquakes
Time-series analysis Volcano seismology Statistical seismology
2014/5/19
Volcanic eruptions are commonly preceded by increased rates of earthquakes. Previous studies argue that in some instances these sequences follow the inverse Omori law (IOL) and that this model could b...
The dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability
dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis earthquake predictability
2014/5/19
The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis was one of the first attempts to predict the form of potential geophysical signals that may precede earthquakes, and hence provide a possible physical basis for eart...
State dependent predictability:impact of uncertainty dynamics,uncertainty structure and model inadequacies
State dependent predictability uncertainty dynamics uncertainty structure model inadequacies
2009/11/11
The implications of state dependent, finite time error growth has been studied using singular values in a chaotic 2-dimensional map. Earlier studies have demonstrated the superiority of the singular v...
Enhancing predictability by increasing nonlinearity in ENSO and Lorenz systems
predictability nonlinearity ENSO Lorenz systems
2009/11/2
The presence of nonlinear terms in the governing equations of a dynamical system usually leads to the loss of predictability, e.g. in numerical weather prediction. However, for the El Niño-Sout...
Breeding and predictability in the baroclinic rotating annulus using a perfect model
Breeding predictability baroclinic rotating annulus perfect model
2009/11/2
We present results from a computational study of predictability in fully-developed baroclinically unstable laboratory flows. This behaviour is studied in the Met Office/Oxford Rotating Annulus Laborat...