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Novel Confirmation and the Underdetermination of Scientific Theory Building
novel confirmation predictivism Bayesianism underdetermiation
2016/6/12
The extra value of novel confirmation over accommodation is explained based on an analysis of the underdetermination of scientific theory building. Novel confirmation can provide information on the nu...
How Strong is the Confirmation of a Hypothesis by Significant Data?
significance tests Bayesianism confirmation likelihoodism falsification inference to the best explanation
2016/6/12
The aim of the article is to determine how much a hypothesis H is actually confirmed if it has successfully passed a classical significance test. Bayesians have already raised many serious objections ...
Climate Models,Calibration and Confirmation
confirmation calibration tuning double-counting climate science Bayesianism
2016/5/31
We argue that concerns about double-counting -- using the same evidence both to calibrate or tune climate models and also to confirm or verify that the models are adequate --deserve more careful scrut...
While Bayesian analysis has enjoyed notable success with many particular problems of inductive inference, it is not the one true and universal logic of induction. I review why the Bayesian approach fa...
Scientific Reasoning Is Material Inference: Combining Confirmation, Discovery, and Explanation
inference concepts confirmation induction
2009/9/11
Whereas an inference (deductive as well as inductive) is usually viewed as being valid in virtue of its argument form, the present paper argues that scientific reasoning is material inference, i.e., j...
Abstract Representations and Confirmation
applications of mathematics abstraction confirmation
2009/6/11
Many philosophers would concede that mathematics contributes to the abstractness of some of our most successful scientific representations. Still, it is hard to know what this abstractness really come...
Falsificationist Confirmation
Confirmation Induction Hypothetico-Deductivism Content Parts
2008/4/22
Existing accounts of hypothetico-deductive confirmation are able to circumvent the classical objections (e.g. the tacking problems), but the confirmation of conjunctions of hypotheses brings them into...
The conjunction fallacy has been a key topic in debates on the rationality of human reasoning and its limitations. Despite extensive inquiry, however, the attempt of providing a satisfactory account o...
This paper discusses an almost sixty year old problem in the philosophy of science -- that of a logic of confirmation. We present a new analysis of Carl G. Hempel's conditions of adequacy (Hempel 1945...
Philosophically, one of the most important questions in the enterprise termed confirmation theory is this: Why should one stick to well confirmed theories rather than to any other theories? This paper...
Recent works in epistemology show that the claim that coherence is truth conducive – in the sense that, given suitable ceteris paribus conditions, more coherent sets of statements are always more prob...
On coherent sets and the transmission of confirmation
Coherence coherentism measures of coherence
2008/4/15
In this paper, we identify a new and mathematically well-defined sense in which the coherence of a set of hypotheses can be truth-conducive. Our focus is not, as usually, on the probability but on the...
Is the Conjunction Fallacy tied to Probabilistic Confirmation?
confirmation theory Bayesianism
2008/4/15
Crupi, Fitelson, and Tentori (CFT, forthcoming) offer three conditions that constitute an attempted confirmation-theoretic explanation of the conjunction fallacy. I present experimental results to sho...
How to Confirm the Disconfirmed. On conjunction fallacies and robust confirmation
Probability confirmation conjunction fallacy
2008/4/14
Can some evidence confirm a conjunction of two hypotheses more than it confirms either of the hypotheses separately? We show that it can, moreover under conditions that are the same for nine different...
Carnap, Revisionism and “Truth and Confirmation”
History of Philosophy of Science Carnap Kuhn Revisionism Logical Positivism
2008/4/30
In recent years, a revisionist process focused on logical positivism can be observed. One aspect of this revisionism -defended by authors like Michael Friedman, John Earman and George Reisch - is the ...